The Demographics of Aging...
| Demographics of Aging < |
| Perceptions of Age |
| Myths of Aging |
| Age and Ability |
| The Aging Process |
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Fifty
million aging
Baby Boomers
are sparking
a demand for
products and
environments
that accommodate
their normal
physical and
sensory changes.
> Characteristics of the Aged Population
The
growth of the
world's older
population and
the characteristics
of its sub-populations
all contribute
to an extremely
diverse, heterogeneous
group of older
adults that for
the most part,
other than advanced
chronological
age, defy characterization.
Extensive human aging is only a recent phenomenon.
TODAY, ONE OUT OF EVERY NINE AMERICANS IS OLD. This has not always been the case. As late as 1930, there were less than seven million older Americans. In 2004 alone, more than 3.5 million boomers turned 55. And by 2012, Americans age 50 or older will have swelled to more than 100 million.
This dramatic growth in numbers and proportions, increased life expectancies and energetic life styles will allow us to live 20 to 25 percent of our lives in active retirement. Moreover, today's physically and intellectually active younger generations suggest that tomorrow's elderly population will be better educated, healthier, culturally literate and, as individuals, more discerning consumers.
Such changes in the number of people reaching 65, coupled with an increased life expectancy, have expanded the elderly sub-population classifications beyond the "young old" (64-74) and the "old" (75-84).
Today,
the "old-old" (85+)
group, representing
over 10 percent
of the older
population, is
growing most
rapidly, and
the one most
in need of accommodating
resources and
environmental
support systems.
> The Swelling Aging Population
A recent global phenomenon:
AS WE ENTER THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY, aging of the population has emerged as a major demographic trend worldwide. Declining fertility, and improved health and longevity, have dramatically swelled the older populations at an unprecedented rate.
Since 2007, the global population of older people has increased by 10.4 million, swelling to 506 million—an average increase of 30,000 each day.
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For the first time in history, people aged 65 and over will soon outnumber children under the age of 5.
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Throughout the world today, there are more people aged 65 and older than the entire populations of Russia, Japan, France, Germany and Australia.
- By 2040, the global population is projected to have 1.3 billion older people—accounting for 14 percent of the total.
- By 2030, 55 countries are expected to see their 65 and older populations at least 20 percent of their total.
Aging populations vary throughout the world:
- By 2050, Europe will continue to be the world's oldest region with its elder population increasing more than five fold, from 40 million to 219 million.
- Only 5 percent of Africa's population is projected to be 65 and older by 2050, with sub-Sararan Africa remaining the world's youngest region.
- China snd India have the largest older populations and will see them grow from 109 million and 62 million to 350 million and 240 milion respectively.
One out of every nine Americans is old:
TODAY IN THE UNITED STATES, nearly 40 million are age 65 and older. This number is expected to more than double to 89 million by 2050.
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Today, In the U.S., there are more people age 65 and older than the entire population of Canada.
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There are more Americans aged 65 and older than the populations of New York, London, and Moscow — combined.
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I n 2010, Baby Boomers will begin reaching age 65, swelling the 65 and over population in the United States from 12 to 20 percent by the year 2050.
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America's elderly population is expected is expected to reach 72 million by 2030, more than double the number in 2000.
The Elderly Sub-populations
The "Young Old" 65-74: The first wave of aging Baby Boomers will reach full retirement age in 2011. From then on, for the next 20 years, 74 million Boomers will retire. This means that 10,000 new retirees will be added to the Social Secrity and Medicare rolls each day.
The "Old" 74-84: By the end of the decade, increased life expectancy will strengthen the wave of aging Boomers and steadily increase the total number contained within this elderly sub-population.
The "Oldest-Old" 85+: The
fastest-growing
segment of the
total population
is the oldest old—those
80 and over.
Their growth
rate is twice
that of the 65
and over population
and almost 4
times that for
the total population.
In the United
States, this
group now represents
10% of the older
population and
will more
than triple from
5.7 million in
2010 to over
19 million by
2050.
> Increased Life Expectancy
The U.S. life expectancy is at an all time high!
According to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, life expectancy at birth has risen to a new high of nearly 78 years. For over a decade, life expectancy has increased 1.4 years from 76.5 year in 1997 to 77.9 in 2007. This increase is due mainly to falling rates in almost all the leading causes of death.
Two thousand years ago the average Roman could expect to live 22 years. A person born in 1900 could only expect to live 47.3 years; in 1930, 59.7 years; and in 1960, 69.7 years. Today, a newborn infant has a life expectancy of 78.3 years.
This dramatic increase is not accidental. Its substantial and pleasing rise resulted from infectious disease control, public health initiatives, and new surgical and rabilitation techniques.
Mortality rates are declining.
While heart disease and cancer, the two leading causes of death, accounted for nearly half (48.5 percent of all deaths in 2007, mortality rates declined significantly between 2006 and 2007 for eight of the 15 leading causes of death:
- influenza and pneumonia (down 8.4 percent)
- homicide (down 6.5 percent)
- accidents (down 5 percent)
- heart disease (down 4.7 percent)
- stroke (down 4.6 percent)
- diabetes (down 3.9 percent)
- hypertension (down 2.7 percent)
- cancer (down 1.8 percent)
Put in perspective, life expectancy at age 65 has increased more in the last 30 years than the entire 200-year period from 1750 to 1950. Today, a person age 65 can expect to live another 15 years. A man of 75 has a 50-50 chance of reaching 84; a woman, 86.
The longer you live, the longer you're likely to live!
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT to remember that older people are not the only beneficiaries of increased longevity. This dramatic increase in life expectancy has also occurred for those in infancy, childhood, and even early adulthood due to improved medical breakthrouoghs in solving problems with birth, early infancy disorders, and contagious diseases.
Add
to this improvements
in nutrition
and sanitation
and we can see
the reasons why
most children
today reach adulthood
and why most
adults reach
old age.
> A Skewed Sex Ratio
It's a woman's world.
As the world's population gets older, it also becomes predominantly more female.
Throughout the world in 2008, there were an estimated 62 million more women than men age 65 and over. The U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 estimates show the 65 years and over population to be 43% male and 57.0% female.
Women, characteristically, comprise the majority of the older population in the majority of countries as their share of the population increases with age.
The ratio changes.
The sex ratio (the number of men per 100 women) changes over the human life span. There are 106 male births for every 100 female births. The numbers of men continue to exceed women until the third decade (20-29).
From that age on, women increasingly outnumber men. In the 65-74 age group, there are 86 males for every 100 females. Their number drops to 72 in the 75-84 age group. The changes for the old-old (85 and older) group become even more pronounced. For this sub-group, the sex ratio expands to an astounding 49 men to every 100 women.
This is primarily the result of higher male than female mortality rates beginning at birth and continuing throughout the life course, which leaves fewer men than women at older ages.
Design implications.
The implications are self evident: desiging for an aging population means designing for a gender imbalance of older females.
> Race/Ethnicity
ONE WOULD EXPECT TO FIND aged people to be similarly distributed among racital/ethnic sub-populations in the United States. But this is not the case. In fact, about 17 percent of the entire population of older Americans is of minority race and/or ethnicity compaired with about 13 percent for whites.
The distribution by sub-groups shows a disparity in life expectancy caused by:
- varying birth rates
- socio-economic factors
- immigration rates
- inaccuracies due to enumeration problems of the census itself
In the next
several decades,
the percentages
are expected
to change,
resulting in
a decrease
in the white
majority and
proportionate
increases in
the percentages
of minority
elderly.
Transgenerational
homes and products
can help maintain
those active
lifestyles,
activities
and independence.
We can help
you accommodate—and
attract—their
swelling purchasing
power.
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