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Fifty milion aging Baby Boomers are sparking demand for products and environments that accommodate their physical and sensory changes.
> Characteristics of the Aged Population
The world's older population is an extremely diverse heterogeneous group of aging adults that, apart from advanced chronological age, defies characterization.
Human Aging—A Recent Phenomenon
NEVER BEFORE IN HUMAN HISTORY has our planet contained so many older people—or such a large percentage of them. This has not always been the case. As late as 1930, America's older population numbered less than 7 million (only 5.4% of the population).
Today, one out of every 9 Americans is "old"—another former youth turns 50 every 8 seconds. Those age 65 and older now exceed 35 million, a number poised to explode as 50 million Baby Boomers surge toward the gates of retirement.
Each year more than 3.5 million Boomers turn 55. Their swelling numbers predict that, by 2012, America's 50 and older population will reach 100 million. This dramatic growth in numbers and proportions, increased life expectancies, and energetic life styles, now enables us to live 20 to 25 percent of our lives in active retirement.
Moreover, today's physically and intellectually active younger generations predict that tomorrow's elderly population will be better educated, healthier, culturally literate and, as individuals, more discerning consumers.
Youth" may
be "in" today—but "age" will
be "in" tomorrow.
The Elderly Sub-populations
The dramatic changes in the number of consumers reaching 65, coupled with an increased life expectancy, have expanded the elderly sub-population classifications beyond the age of 65 to include the "young old," the "old," and the "old-old" groups.
The "Young Old" 65-74. The first wave of aging Baby Boomers will reach full retirement age in 2011. For the next 20 years, 74 million Boomers will retire. This means that 10,000 new retirees will be added to the Social Secrity and Medicare rolls each day.
The "Old" 74-84. During the next decade, increased life expectancy will strengthen the wave of aging Boomers and steadily increase their total number contained within the elderly sub-population.
The "Oldest-Old" 85+. The fastest-growing segment of the total population is the oldest old—those 80 and over. Their growth rate is twice that of those 65 and over and almost 4-times that for the total population. In the United States, this group now represents 10% of the older population and will more than triple from 5.7 million in 2010 to over 19 million by 2050.
Elderly Boomers Will be Different
Unlike their parent's generation, Boomers will be a market with very different characteristics.
They exercise twice as much as previous generations. No bocci ball or badminton for them. They'll continue to bike, kike, swim, sail, and ski—play softball and basketball.
No rocking chairs or vegitating in the desert sun. They'll move to places where they ow bike, hike, fish, and ski—to the moountains, beaches, islands, college towns—where the physical and intellectual action is.
A survey by Del Web showed that half of them expect to work at least part-time once they retire. And they will want offices in their homes—with highspeed internet connections for those two or more computers, which 40 percent of them already own.
As LeRoy Hanneman, president and CEO of Del Web says, "Boomers should be called "Zoomers."
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> The Swelling Aging Population
A Recent Global Phenomenon
AS WE ENTER THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY, population aging has emerged as a major demographic trend worldwide. Declining fertility, and improved health and longevity, have swelled the older populations dramatically—and at an unprecedented rate.
-
For the first time in history, people aged 65 and over will soon outnumber children under the age of 5.
-
Throughout the world today, there are more people aged 65 and older than the entire populations of Russia, Japan, France, Germany and Australia—combined.
- By
2030, 55
countries
are expected
to see their
65 and older
populations
at least
20 percent
of their
total.
-
By 2040, the global population is projected to number 1.3 billion older people—accounting for 14 percent of the total.
Projected
Acceleration
of Population
Aging 
Source: United Nations, 2009
Future Projections
IN 2009, THE GLOBAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE AGED 60 AND OVER was 680 million people, representing 11 percent of the world's population. They have increased by 10.4 million just since 2007—an average increase of 30,000 each day. Moreover:
- By
2050, the
60 and older
population
will increase
from 680
million to
2 billion—increasing
from 11 to
22 percent
of the world's
population.
- From
1950 to 2050,
the world
population
will have
increased
by a factor
of 3.6; those
60 and over
will have
increased
by a factor
of 10; and
those 80
and over
by a factor
of 27.
- By 2050, Europe will continue to be the world's oldest region with its elder population increasing more than five fold—from 40 million to 219 million.
- Only 5 percent of Africa's population is projected to be 65 and older by 2050, with sub-Sararan Africa remaining the world's youngest region.
-
China and India have the largest older populations. By 2050, China will see its number of elders grow 30% from 109 million to 350 million—India, from 62 million to 240 milion.
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Japan, with today's largest share of the world's old-age population, will see its percentage of those 60 and over rise from 27 percent to 44 percent in 2050.
-
By 2050, more than 70 countries, representing about one third of the world's population, will surpass Japan's present old-age share of 27 percent.
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In the coming decades, all regions of the globe will experience population aging. Today's 5-22 percent range will become an 11-34 percent range in 2050 (UN, 2009)
One of Nine Americans is Old
TODAY IN THE UNITED STATES, nearly 40 million Americans are age 65 and older. Their number is expected to more than double to 89 million by 2050. In addition:
-
The United States contains more people age 65 and older than the total population of Canada.
- Americans
aged 65 and
older outnumber
the combined
populations
of New York,
London, and
Moscow.
- I
n 2010,
Baby Boomers
will begin
reaching
age 65,
swelling
the 65
and over
population
in the
United
States
from 12
to 20 percent
by the
year 2050.
- America's
elderly
population
is expected
is expected
to reach
72 million
by 2030,
more than
double
the number
in 2000.
.
> Why the Population is Aging
Increase in life expectancy driven by three factors:
- Age
Dynamics -
Past variations
in birth
and death
rates,
and how
these affect
the evolution
of a counties
age structure
(the 1946-1964
baby boom
in the
United
States).
- Declining
Fertility
Rates -
Rising
old-age
shares,
which have
taken place,
or are
still taking
place,
cause the
share of
older people
to rise
automatically.
- Longevity Increase - There is a general agreement that increases in life expectancy will continue.
Life Expectancy at an All Time High
According to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, life expectancy at birth has risen to a new high of nearly 78 years. Two thousand years ago the average Roman could expect to live 22 years. Those born in 1900 could only expect to live 47.3 years.
By 1930, life expectancy had risen to 59.7 years, rising again in 1960 to 69.7 years. Continuing its dramatic rise, life expectancy increased 1.4 years from 76.5 in 1997 to 77.9 in 2007. Today, a newborn infant can expect to live for 78.3 years.
This dramatic increase in life expectancy is not accidental. Its substantial and pleasing rise results from infectious disease control, public health initiatives, and new surgical and rabilitation techniques.
Declining Mortality Rates
While heart disease and cancer, the two leading causes of death, accounted for nearly half (48.5 percent of all deaths in 2007, mortality rates declined significantly between 2006 and 2007 for eight of the 15 leading causes of death:
- influenza and pneumonia (down 8.4 percent)
- homicide (down 6.5 percent)
- accidents (down 5 percent)
- heart disease (down 4.7 percent)
- stroke (down 4.6 percent)
- diabetes (down 3.9 percent)
- hypertension (down 2.7 percent)
- cancer (down 1.8 percent)
Put
in perspective,
life expectancy
at age 65 has
increased more
in the last
30 years than
the entire
200-year period
from 1750 to
1950. Today,
a person age
65 can expect
to live another
15 years. A
man of 75 has
a 50-50 chance
of reaching
84; a woman,
86.
The Longer You Live, the Longer You're Likely to Live
ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER—older people are not the only beneficiaries of increased longevity. Life expectancy has increased dramatically for those in infancy, childhood, and even early adulthood due to improved medical breakthrouoghs in solving problems with birth, early infancy disorders, and contagious diseases.
Add
to this improvements
in nutrition
and sanitation
and we can
see the reasons
why most children
today reach
adulthood and
why most adults
reach old age.
> A Skewed Sex Ratio
It's a woman's world.
As the world's population grows steadily older, it also becomes predomantly more female.
Women live longer than men. In 2008, an estimated 62 million more women than men lived to 65 and over. Today, the U.S. Census Bureau splits the American population 43% male and 57.0% female.
As their share of the population increases with age, women characteristically comprise the majority of the older population in the majority of countries throughout the world.
The ratio changes.
The sex ratio (the number of men per 100 women) also changes over the human life span. Surprisingly, 106 male births occur for every 100 female births. As time passes, the number of males continues to exceed females until the third decade (20-29). From that age on, women increasingly outnumber men.
For every 100 females In the 65-74 age group, we find only 86 males. Their number continues to drops to 72 in the 75-84 age group. For the old-old groups (85 and older) the sex ratio becomes even more pronounced expanding to an astounding 49 men for every 100 women.
The higher mortality rates for men, beginning at birth and continuing throughout the life course, result in increasingly fewer men than women tallied within each of the elderly sub-populations.
The implications are self evident:
Desiging for an aging population means designing for a gender imbalance of older females.
> Race/Ethnicity
ONE WOULD EXPECT TO FIND aged people to be similarly distributed among racital/ethnic sub-populations in the United States. But this is not the case. In fact, about 17 percent of the entire population of older Americans is of minority race and/or ethnicity compaired with about 13 percent for whites.
The distribution by sub-groups shows a disparity in life expectancy caused by:
- varying birth rates
- socio-economic factors
- immigration rates
- inaccuracies due to enumeration problems of the census itself
In the next several decades, the percentages should change, resulting in a decrease in the white majority and proportionate increases in the percentages of minority elderly.
Transgenerational
homes and
products
can help
maintain
those active
lifestyles,
activities
and independence.
We can help
you accommodate—and
attract—their
swelling
purchasing
power.
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